Vegas Information
UFC Vegas 77 – Holly Holm vs. Mayra Bueno Silva – Main Card Betting Predictions
UFC Vegas 77 – Holly Holm vs. Mayra Bueno Silva – Main Card Betting Predictions

This is a disastrous card and I’ll only have a minimal amount of action. Nevertheless, check out my MMA predictions for UFC Vegas 77.

Tucker Lutz vs. Melsik Baghdasaryan

Training at the heavily maligned Glendale Fight Club, Melsik Baghdasaryan has some good elements to his game and some significant drawbacks.

The Armenian is a precise and powerful southpaw kickboxer, with a good right hook, left cross and a devastating body kick. He manages distance well and picks his shots intelligently – although his volume could be improved and he has a tendency to throw single strikes rather than combinations.

Baghdasaryan is a renowned front runner and his output falters significantly after the first round. Furthermore, his ground game looks highly suspicious and he was immediately submitted after the fight hit the mat in his last contest.

Money has been flooding in on Tucker Lutz, so there must be people who think the underdog can take advantage of Baghdasaryan’s deficiencies.

Personally, I’m on the fence.

Lutz has a cardio edge and is the more well-rounded athlete, but he doesn’t shine anywhere.

I expect Lutz to lose the first round at a high clip (unless he can secure a takedown), but he could come on strong in rounds 2 and 3. Lutz doesn’t need to beat the kickboxer at his own game, he just needs to get enough respect for his striking in order to set up his wrestling.

We saw Lutz wrestle Sherrard Blackledge to the mat and take his back in the Contender Series, and that could be a round in the bank or potentially a finish against Baghdasaryan.

I won’t have any pre-match action on this fight, but will be looking for a live bet entry on Tucker Lutz if he can weather the early storm.

Nazim Sadykhov vs. Terrance McKinney

Terrance McKinney comes out of the gate hot and aims to score a knockout or submission as quickly as possible. Sometimes he is successful, but things typically head south when opponents are able to withstand the initial onslaught

While dangerous on the feet, there isn’t much process to his striking. He throws flying knees and wild hooks while completely neglecting defense.

McKinney has a fast double leg and is an adept back taker, but I’m unsure if his grappling game is any deeper than that.

Nazim Sadykhov looks like the more fundamentally sound combatant.

Primarily a striker, Sadykhov is precise with his punches, makes good use of angles and is effective with counters. I believe he can find a home for his leg kicks against another southpaw, especially considering McKinney’s wide stance.

Sadykhov can be taken down, but is proficient at working his way back to his feet. Without securing the body triangle, I believe McKinney will struggle to keep the fight on the mat.

I also believe Sadykhov will have the cardio edge, since McKinney typically fades when fights get extended.

I think this is a favorable matchup for Nazim Sadykhov.

Norma Dumont vs. Chelsea Chandler

Norma Dumont should have the advantage in open space. The Brazilian has the superior jab, counters and low kicks. She does her best work when opponents are willing to give her a low tempo kickboxing match, but that won’t be the case here.

Chelsea Chandler likes to fight on the front foot and primarily relies on the 2-3 and 3-2 from the southpaw stance. She can get sloppy and leave her chin high in exchanges, but she should be successful in making the fight ugly and initiating clinch exchanges.

In an interview, Chandler said she wants to push a pace and wear Dumont out – which seems like the right game plan. Dumont can look negative at times and her output drops off (particularly in high-paced fights).

Dumont’s initial takedown defense is serviceable, yet she concedes control time against the fence. If Chandler can get her down in the center of the octagon with one of her preferred trips, she should be able to get her ground strikes and BJJ going – which is the strongest aspect of her game.

I’ll pick Chelsea Chandler to win by late stoppage or on points, but I’m expecting a competitive fight.

Albert Duraev vs. Jun Yong Park

Skill for skill, I believe Albert Duraev and Jun Yong Park are closely matched. The Chechen is the stronger wrestler and top position grappler, while the Korean has the cleaner jab and higher output on the feet.

The most significant aspect of the fight is that Park doesn’t accept being put on bottom position and will actively scramble to his feet. Duraev had a long and brutal career before he arrived at the UFC and his cardio doesn’t hold up as well as it did in his earlier days.

Even if Park concedes a few takedowns, it may benefit him by forcing his adversary into a cardio-taxing fight.

If Duraev’s gas tank is diminished, he’s not going to enjoy having the jab pumped in his face relentlessly in the second half of the contest. Park landing his own takedowns is also not out of the question.

Jun Yong Park is current lined at -155, which feels accurate. I’ll personally be looking for a live bet entry on the Korean fighter.

Holly Holm vs. Mayra Bueno Silva

A couple of years ago, I would’ve said this was a great fight for Holly Holm. On paper, “The Preacher’s Daughter” has the footwork, counter-striking and wrestling to negate her opponent’s strengths.

However, I just don’t like how she has looked recently. She appeared slow and labored against Ketlen Viera – an opponent she would have dominated during her prime.

Mayra Bueno Silva has bad footwork, but plenty of offensive firepower on the feet. The teep kick for Silva should be available against a southpaw and she is great at landing elbows and knees in the clinch (so long as her back isn’t pinned against the fence).

I would bet Silva if she had a smidgen of wrestling, but unfortunately she doesn’t.

Holm should be able to alleviate pressure by hitting takedowns and staying heavy on top – but the Unified Rules favor the Brazilian. Silva will be landing strikes with more impact and as well as fishing for submissions off her back.

I’ll pick Holly Holm to win, but betting her is out of the question at -180.

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