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UFC Vegas 77 Gambling Preview: Will Holly Holm stake claim for title shot with win over Mayra Bueno Silva?
UFC Vegas 77 Gambling Preview: Will Holly Holm stake claim for title shot with win over Mayra Bueno Silva?

Holly Holm
Holly Holm | Esther Lin, MMA Fighting

Fresh of International Fight Week and one of the best events in recent history, the world’s top fight promotion follows up UFC 290 with UFC Vegas 77. Headlined by a bantamweight fight between ex-champ Holly Holm and Mayra Bueno Silva, this event is short on name value and, if we’re being honest, not the most compelling bouts. So let’s spice things up a little bit with some bets!

As always, all odds are courtesy of our friends at DraftKings Sportsbook.

UFC Fight Night: McKinney v Gonzalez
Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC

Straight Bets

Terrance McKinney, +120

There’s definitely some trepidation here, as McKinney is the definition of a get-or-get-got fighter, but I think he’s got a good shot at doing the getting here. Nazim Sadykhov is a fluid and athletic striker, but his languid style opens him up for the sort of bum-rush McKinney likes to employ. Sadykhov has a good chin, but McKinney throws with such vigor right out of the gate, so he could catch “Black Wolf” sleeping and put him down.

Tyson Nam, +350

This is a perfect spot for a little value speculation. Nam has never had a standout career, but he’s the definition of a savvy veteran. Azat Maksum has the gaudy 16-0 record, which always draws attention. But in reality, very few of those are quality wins. Maksum can do everything fairly well, but can he do it against real opposition, when the lights are shining brightly? We’ll never know until we see it, and Nam is the sort of guy who can randomly trip up a highly touted prospect.

Tucker Lutz, +130

This is the definition of a stupid bet, but I’m trying to have fun this weekend, and this my favorite way to do so: being childish.

Do you know what Melsik Baghdasaryan’s nickname is? “The Gun.” Do you know what Tucker Lutz’s nickname is? “Top Gun?” So I ask you, what is better, a gun or the top gun? I think you know.

UFC Fight Night: Holm v Santos
Photo by Josh Hedges/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

Prop Bets

Holly Holm by Decision, +100

The best analog I have for the main event this weekend is when Bueno Silva fought Manon Fiorot at flyweight. Fiorot won fairly easily by out-working “MBS” on the feet and physically dominating her when they got in close. Holm can do both of those things. Even at 41, Holm is still a specimen, and I expect her to have success at range – or to simply grind this fight out in clinches like she has many of her recent bouts. Add to that, Bueno Silva has never been finished, and Holm has not stopped anyone in six years (Bethe Correia in 2017), and this lines up as another decision win for the future Hall of Famer.

Jack Della Maddalena by KO/TKO/DQ in Round 2, +450

Am I overthinking this one? Possibly. In his 14 career wins, JDM has finished the fight in the first round eight times, including all four fights inside the UFC. That being said, Bassil Hafez may not be the best fighter, but he is a tough one. “The Habibi” has never been finished in his career, and while most people reflexively think short notice fights are bad for the new guy, they can also be tough for the scheduled fighter. Della Maddalena had two opponents fall out of UFC 290 and then got bumped here. That’s a bunch of change, facing a tough guy who will wrestle him. He probably looks dominant, but there’s a decent shot this makes it past five minutes.

UFC 284: Makhachev v Volkanovski
Photo by Paul Kane/Getty Images

Parlay of the Week

Holly Holm/Mayra Bueno Silva Over 1.5 Rounds, -750

As mentioned above, Holm hasn’t stopped anyone in six years. Bueno Silva has proven to be a much better finisher of late, but she’s still gone over this number in five of eight UFC appearances.

Jack Della Maddalena/Bassil Hafez Under 2.5 Rounds, -550

While I think Hafez is tough, I don’t think he’s that tough. JDM is a lethal finisher and hyped up for a reason.

Norma Dumont/Chelsea Chandler Over 1.5 Rounds, -525

Dumont has gone to a decision in six straights fights and in eight of 11 career bouts. Chandler has been to a decision in half of her career fights. Chandler is the threat to finish this and tank the parlay, but Dumont is very durable, and I don’t think it’s likely.

Terrance McKinney vs. Nazim Sadykhov Under 2.5 Rounds, -500

In 18 career fights, McKinney has only left the first round three times. The man has never gone to decision. He hates the judges, and we love him for that. But if that wasn’t enough, also is a judge hater, going to the cards only once in his nine-fight MMA career. This fight probably doesn’t leave the first round, much less make it 12 minutes.

Parlay these four bets together for -110 odds.

UFC 284: Makhachev v Volkanovski
Photo by Paul Kane/Getty Images

Longshot of the Week

Jack Della Maddalena by Submission in Round 2, +2800

I’m going back to the JDM well, and the reasoning is basically exactly the same as above. Della Maddalena is excellent, but the multiple opponent changes paired with Hafez’s toughness, make me think a second -ound finish is entirely possible. And the last time out, Della Maddalena, knockout artist extraordinaire, submitted Randy Brown after clubbing him on the feet. These are pretty big odds for something that is definitely in the realm of possible.

Wrap Up

Solid winning week last time out. A couple of big underdogs cashed, which is always a good time. Lighter week this time out but let’s try and chalk up another W.

Until next week, enjoy the fights, good luck, and gamble responsibly!

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